The Second Weekend Is the New Opening Weekend

The Second Weekend Is the New Opening Weekend

When The Fantastic Four: First Steps opened to $117.6 million at the domestic box office in late July, the media was quick to pronounce that Marvel Studios was back in action after a string of post-pandemic misses (excluding last summer’s Deadpool and Wolverine).

Such proclamations only seemed fair, considering the praise heaped on the far more troubled DC Studios two weeks earlier when Superman debuted to $125 million domestically.

Not only had the two films opened to heroic numbers for their studios, they shared similar audience and critics’ scores, prompting even the most cynical box office pundits to suggest that Fantastic Four would hold up in the same vicinity as Superman, which dropped a reasonable 53 percent in its second weekend to $58.5 million for a 10-day North American cume of $236.2 million. They were wrong. Fantastic Four plummeted a shocking 67 percent in its sophomore outing to $38.7 million for a 10-day total of $197.1 million.

For decades, the opening weekend has often defined a movie’s reputation as a winner or loser.

But the second weekend of a film’s release can provide the more significant stamp of approval — or rejection. This summer, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners saw a second-weekend drop of less than 5 percent, an unheard-of low decline these days. That was the moment Warner Bros. knew it had a hit on its hands. (The film has grossed $365 million globally.) The studio, which is enjoying an enviable winning streak, saw Zach Cregger’s hit Weapons fall only 44 percent in sophomore outing, cementing its status as a sleeper blockbuster.

There are plenty of other 2025 titles where the second weekend provided the more telling sign.

When Disney’s ill-fated Snow White bowed to a worrisome $42.2 million this spring, studio execs insisted the live-action adaptation would find its stride. They changed their tune when it slipped 66 percent in its sophomore weekend to $14.3 million on its way to topping out at an abysmal $87.2 million domestically. And this summer, Marvel Studios celebrated when Captain America: Brave New World opened to $88.8 million domestically, but perhaps wasn’t feeling so brave when the tentpole subsequently dropped 68 percent the following weekend.

Marvel’s third 2025 superhero title, Thunderbolts, debuted to an OK $74.3 million this summer before falling 56 percent. While a decline of 55 percent to 57 percent is considered within the norm for an event title, Marvel was certainly looking for a better hold since the opening for Thunderbolts wasn’t that big to begin with. Last summer, Deadpool & Wolverine launched to a dazzling $211 million and only fell 54 percent the next weekend.

Luckily, Disney is home of 2025 summer sensation to Lilo & Stitch to soothe its wounds. A bona fide hit from the start — it opened to $182 million over the long Memorial Day weekend — the live-action adaptation has earned north of $1.02 billion globally to make it the top Hollywood movie of the year ahead of Warners’ Spring sensation A Minecraft Movie ($955 million) and Universal’s Jurassic World Rebirth ($829 million).

Like Jurassic World, one of the most anticipated sequels of the summer was Sony and Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later. No one wrote it off as a dud when it opened to $30 million in the latter half of June, but the conversation over its box office performance abruptly changed when it tumbled nearly 68 percent in its second weekend to $9.7 million on its way to topping out a disappointing $70.4 million domestically and becoming a box office zombie.